Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 07:08:57

ACUS03 KWNS 190708
SWODY3
SPC AC 190708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
portions of the central High Plains into the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles.

....Central High Plains Vicinity...

The overall upper pattern will remain similar to Day 2/Tue, with a
large-scale upper trough in the West, upper ridging across the
southern/central Plains and the Great Lakes vicinity, and an upper
low over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts weak shortwave
impulses ejecting across the central Rockies vicinity, providing
some weak ascent through the Plains upper ridge. At the surface, a
cold front is expected to sag south across western NE and eastern
CO. Persistent east/southeast low-level flow ahead of the surface
boundary will maintain 60s F dewpoints across parts of western
NE/eastern CO/western KS and into OK/TX. Strong heating and steep
lapse rates will contribute to a corridor of strong destabilization.
Deep-layer flow will be fairly weak, but vertically veering profiles
will result in around 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Where
storms develop, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. There
is some uncertainty in the south/southeast extent of severe
potential, mainly tied to weak forcing with southward extent. This
could result in some adjustment to severe probabilities in
subsequent outlooks. For now, the best overlap of modest ascent with
favorable shear/instability appears to be over the central High
Plains vicinity, necessitating a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5).

...Leitman.. 06/19/2023

$$

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