Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 05:43:28 ACUS02 KWNS 190543 SWODY2 SPC AC 190542 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast and the northern Plains on Tuesday. ....Central Gulf Coast into southern Georgia and Florida... An upper low over the Southeast will persist on Tuesday. Moderate deep-layer northwesterly flow on the western periphery of the low will overspread the ArkLaTex vicinity into the Lower MS Valley. Flow will become westerly and weaken with eastward extent into GA/FL. At the surface, a very moist airmass will reside, especially to the south of a surface boundary draped from the ArkLaTex to far southern MS/AL, then arcing northeast into southern GA. 70s F dewpoints will be common, supporting a corridor of strong instability across the region. Isolated damaging wind and hail will be possible from southern AL/GA into FL. However, a corridor of relatively greater severe potential will exist where stronger instability will overlap more favorable vertical shear across LA and southern MS toward far southwest AL. Better organized cells/bows will be possible across this area, posing a risk for severe gusts and large hail. The western extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain as capping will increase toward the Sabine Valley and east TX under the influence of the southern Plains upper ridge. ....Northern Plains... Moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of the large-scale upper trough will overspread the northern Plains on Tuesday. Stronger flow will remain further west over eastern MT and central/western WY, somewhat displaced from the axis of greater instability developing over the Dakotas into NE. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift east/southeast across southern Manitoba and the western Dakotas through 00z before stalling overnight. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support a narrow corridor of MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes will remain weak, generally less than 25 kt. This will limit longevity of organized updrafts. Nevertheless, very steep low and midlevel lapse rates coupled with strong instability will support severe thunderstorms capable of strong outflow gusts and, in more intense/persistent cells, sporadic large hail. ...Leitman.. 06/19/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .