Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 02:55:34

AWUS01 KWNH 190255
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-190853-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0521
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1054 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190253Z - 190853Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving and repeating areas of showers and
thunderstorms will promote a threat for some areas of flash
flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 WV satellite imagery shows a
well-defined upper-level closed low and associated trough
beginning to enter the Lower OH Valley region. Slow-moving and
locally repeating areas of showers and thunderstorms are noted
already over areas of southern IL down through western KY and
western TN.

This activity is being aided by divergent flow aloft associated
with broader DPVA ahead of the height falls and is also
interacting with a well-defined nose of instability aiming up
across the Mid-South and into the Lower OH Valley with the support
of deeper layer southerly flow. This warm air advection regime and
associated moisture transport from the Mid-South should continue
to favor broken areas of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity
heading through the overnight hours.

Rainfall rates are expected to be locally as high as 1 to 2
inches/hour with the stronger cells. Relatively slow cell-motions
should persist, and there will be at least localized concerns for
repeating cell-activity that will favor enhanced rainfall amounts.

Evening runs of the HRRR guidance and the new 00Z hires CAMs favor
spotty amounts of as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain going through
the 06Z to 09Z time frame. The antecedent conditions across most
of the region are quite dry, so the flash flood threat is somewhat
limited and definitely predicated on these heavier amounts
materializing. The more urbanized locations will be most
susceptible to seeing greater runoff concerns heading through the
overnight hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_VrUBlioIq4_-sMWJ5IWr4V0qMRSFjgUAPyDGodqudzVCCcoVbT4rA9rFjT_LA4iGq2g=
7q-XDkIHa6KW28JNtAjDXNo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39018875 38938759 38268659 37118608 36088595=20
            35358608 34548658 34808780 34538896 34958940=20
            35928893 36838876 37718901 38548929=20

=3D =3D =3D
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