Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1154
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 18 2023 20:58:23

ACUS11 KWNS 182058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182057=20
MTZ000-182230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182057Z - 182230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe gust or two cannot be ruled out with any of the
stronger storms that manages to develop. The severe threat should
remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently been noted within
a broader rain-band, which precedes a mid-level trough and where
stronger forcing for ascent exists. Adequate surface heating has
allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s F, supporting a relatively
dry boundary layer/inverted-v soundings extending up to 700 mb given
modest low-level moisture (shown by some of the latest RAP forecast
soundings). Given the dry boundary layer, any of the stronger storms
that manages to develop may generate enough evaporative cooling to
support a severe gust or two. However, the severe threat should be
isolated and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 06/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8I-duGrAwr6krehHI0g1UGXQscvFUQQ_G8FHlOhzTjlAvtpyJ1MXBrgQGG5yZadkQb6DIkDaC=
VGzQabFHH8oYRPYl4s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45750892 46380846 48230738 49090810 49100508 48220506
            46610552 45900585 45330699 45310817 45540880 45750892=20


=3D =3D =3D
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