Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 18 2023 16:30:50 ACUS01 KWNS 181630 SWODY1 SPC AC 181629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.... ....SUMMARY... Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley region to the east-central Gulf Coast. ....AR/LA/MS/TN/AL... Widespread overnight and morning convection has overturned the air mass across much of the lower MS valley into AL. This leads to a very low-confidence forecast for later today and tonight. Morning model guidance shows wide diversity in where the corridors of highest risk of severe storms will develop, but several solutions continue to show potential. What appears to be the most likely scenario is shown by the morning NAM and recent runs of the RAP/HRRR. This suggests storms will redevelop this afternoon over parts of AR and track eastward into portions of TN/MS/AL. This area will see substantial heating by mid-afternoon as clearing arrives from the west. Forecast soundings in this area show a strengthening low-level jet by late-afternoon, promoting supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. ....Southern AL to FL Panhandle Today... Multiple clusters of strong/severe storms are ongoing early this afternoon over parts of southern AL and southeast MS. The air mass ahead of these storms is becoming very unstable with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures warming through the 80s. This is near the core of a 40-50 knot mid level jet max, providing sufficient shear for organized multicell and supercell storm structures. There is uncertainty how this activity will evolve through the afternoon, but they could persist/intensity and track across much of southern AL and the FL Panhandle with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ....East TX... Several morning CAM solutions show at least isolated intense storms forming along a surface boundary extending across northeast TX. Given the ample moisture/CAPE in this area, have extended the SLGT risk farther west. ...Hart/Squitieri.. 06/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .