Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1149
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 18 2023 14:55:49

ACUS11 KWNS 181455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181455=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-181700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...Northern LA into parts of central/southern MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332...

Valid 181455Z - 181700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and localized damaging gusts may
persist through the morning, though severe coverage may remain
rather isolated.

DISCUSSION...At 1445 UTC, one thunderstorm cluster is moving across
central MS, with another noted over northern LA. Intensity trends
have generally been downward over the last 1-2 hours, as storms move
north of a composite outflow boundary, and encounter a somewhat less
favorable environment in the wake of earlier convection. One
exception has been the southwestward-most storm near Shreveport,
which is in closer proximity to stronger elevated buoyancy, and this
cell may continue to pose a threat of large hail in the short term.=20

With steep midlevel lapse rates (noted on regional 12Z soundings)
persisting across the region, some convection will likely persist
through the morning, with the stronger elevated storms capable of
hail and locally damaging gusts. However, advection of rather dry
air immediately above the surface (as noted in the 12Z LCH and CRP
soundings) may tend to suppress storm coverage near/south of the
outflow this morning, before more substantial airmass recovery
commences sometime this afternoon.=20

WW 332 may be locally extended to cover the lingering threat into
east-central MS, but elsewhere, new watch issuance is considered
unlikely in the short term.

...Dean/Hart.. 06/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-j-UcSNZLCogvnA8LQrVXQ7Xo2XlnlYdSycz9AXOOEeVPKIpnCchuM0Lje6qP3Sa8bPJGQTWV=
_STEiOXTfbhAvDVcCo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32709403 33009248 32809151 32289092 32389021 32858947
            32868893 32338853 32138869 32108918 32068946 31978993
            31849086 31689183 31519270 31549323 31779362 32319390
            32709403=20


=3D =3D =3D
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