Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 18 2023 07:28:17

ACUS03 KWNS 180728
SWODY3
SPC AC 180727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Southeast and the northern Plains on Tuesday.

....Southeast...

The overall pattern will not change much from the previous couple of
days, with an upper low meandering east/southeast on Tuesday.
Deep-layer flow will be a bit weaker than the day before, but
700-500 mb northwest flow around 40 kt is still forecast from the
Lower MS Valley eastward into the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far
east as southern GA. A very moist and unstable airmass will persist
beneath this moderate mid/upper flow, and another day of strong to
severe thunderstorms is possible. Clusters and bows will mainly
support strong/damaging gusts.

....Plains...

An upper ridge will be oriented from the Rio Grande in TX
north/northeast to the Upper MS Valley. A hot and moist airmass will
spread northward across the Plains beneath the ridge, and a corridor
of 60s F dewpoints is forecast from western/central KS/NE into the
Dakotas. Dewpoints approaching the low 70s are forecast further
south into OK and northeast TX. To the west of the upper ridge, a
large-scale upper trough will persist over the west. Stronger
southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of the trough will
overspread western portions of the Plains, supporting effective
shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a
moist airmass will foster strong destabilization. Several shortwave
impulses ejecting from the western trough will move into the Plains
during the afternoon and nighttime hours. At least isolated
organized cells capable of strong outflow winds (courtesy of a
deeply mixed boundary layer) and large hail will be possible.
Uncertainty remains on the southward extent of the severe risk as
capping may preclude thunderstorm development across parts of the
central/southern Plains. Depending on forecast trends, a southward
extension of severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent
outlooks.

...Leitman.. 06/18/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.