Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1143
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 18 2023 03:15:44

ACUS11 KWNS 180315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180315=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Eastern Oklahoma...Southwest
Missouri and Western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329...

Valid 180315Z - 180515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat, associated with the MCS in northwest
Oklahoma, will move eastward across north-central Oklahoma over the
next few hours. Wind damage and large hail will be likely. Cells in
southeast Oklahoma will also expand in coverage, containing a severe
weather threat as well. The severe threat is expected to eventually
affect western Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Oklahoma
City shows a well-developed linear MCS in northwest Oklahoma, moving
eastward around 50 knots. The MCS is expected to track
east-southeast along a gradient of instability into northeast
Oklahoma over the next few hours. Another severe cluster is
currently located in southern Oklahoma. These storms are expected to
develop northeastward across the remainder of southeast Oklahoma
over the next couple of hours. The two convective systems are
forecast to continue moving toward western Arkansas and may converge
late this evening into the early overnight period.=20

Moderate instability, along with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots evident
on the Fort Smith WSR-88D VWP, will support a continued severe
threat with the stronger cells within the MCS. Damaging wind gusts
will be likely along the leading edge of the large-scale bowing line
segment with large hail also likely within the more intense parts of
the line.

...Broyles.. 06/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5EXC2eBELHyoN-7-QUVl21mQz3DaniDDP8powN4_trV0CX39Eh3djbOvzuUikKSrEei1JevA7=
aZKpaI0dDzEw409R0s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33589465 33999347 35139301 36279309 37499374 38039552
            37929721 37449779 36909789 36049800 35159798 34469790
            34029767 33729692 33589465=20


=3D =3D =3D
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