Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 18 2023 01:24:43 ACUS01 KWNS 180124 SWODY1 SPC AC 180123 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS EAST TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing very large hail, increasingly widespread/damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes, will continue into Sunday morning across a broad area extending from the central and southern Plains to Florida. The zone of most widespread damaging wind potential -- consisting of one or more swaths -- is evident from Oklahoma and North Texas eastward to Mississippi, through the overnight hours. ....Central and southern Plains to the Mississippi area... Scattered strong/severe storms are ongoing at this time from western Kansas southward to central Texas, where very large hail and strong/damaging winds are accompanying the most intense storms. Meanwhile, more isolated storms are ongoing from the Arklatex southeastward across southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, where local risk for hail/wind will persist over the next couple of hours. With time, while short-term severe risk over the central Gulf Coast region diminishes as the bulk of the convection continues shifting into the northern Gulf, the main area of widespread/more substantial severe weather will focus from southern Kansas to North Texas this evening, where storms will likely consolidate into one or more forward-propagating MCSs. Isolated supercells are also expected this evening, away from the upscale-growing clusters. With time, storms will move into and across parts of Arkansas and northern Louisiana, and eventually should spread across the Lower Mississippi Valley into Mississippi overnight, and possibly southwestern Alabama by the end of the period. A very moist/strongly unstable airmass is in place across this region (mixed-layer CAPE in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range from the vicinity of the Red River Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley). With 55 to 65 kt mid-level west-northwesterly flow contributing to favorable shear for organized/fast-moving storms, and a developing 50 kt southerly low-level jet over the southern Plains feeding upscale convective growth, risk for increasingly widespread damaging winds is evident. Large to very large hail will also be possible, with the largest associated with more isolated/supercell storms. ....Florida... A belt of enhanced (20 to 40 kt) westerly/west-northwesterly flow in the 850mb to 500mb layer persists across the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico and eastward across Florida this evening. This, combined with a very unstable airmass -- particularly over the western half of the state and into the eastern Gulf -- will support a continuation of thunderstorms through the evening and overnight, as outflow from ongoing convection shifts south-southeastward across the region. Damaging wind gusts, and some hail, will accompany the strongest storms/storm clusters. ...Goss.. 06/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .