Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 18 2023 00:02:42 AWUS01 KWNH 180002 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-180555- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0515...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 801 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Corrected for geographic header Areas affected...western/central Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and northwestern into central Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 172355Z - 180555Z Summary...A developing mesoscale convective complex will spread areas of heavy rain across the discussion area for the next 2-3 hours. Flash flooding is possible - especially in northwestern Kansas. Discussion...Over the past several hours, convection in Colorado has grown upscale into a forward-propagating linear complex while reaching the CO/KS border area. The northern side of this complex has exhibited slightly slower storm motions and rain rates approaching 1 inch/hr. Additionally, much of the western quarter of Kansas has experience abundant rainfall over the past week, and FFGs remain low (around 1 inch/hr). These FFGs are being exceeded at times with the MCS. As a result, flash flooding remains possible as storms migrate west to east across the region. Farther south toward southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, a cluster of cells have developed just ahead of the MCS. The cluster was allowing for rain rates to exceed 1-2 inches/hr at times due to repeating and locally prolonged rainfall. Eventual mergers with the approaching MCS should also allow for another quick 1-2 inches, potentially resulting in 3-4 inch total rainfall amounts and localized flash flooding. Over time, continued cell mergers ahead of the approaching MCS should continue especially in southern portions of the MPD area (southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma). FFGs, however, are a bit higher with eastward extent (1.5-2.5 inch/hr) suggesting that the flash flood threat toward south-central Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma will be 1) more isolated/spotty and 2) tied to localized areas of training or cell mergers that act to prolong rain rates.=20 A southward component of motion/propagation to the MCS is also expected over time. At least an isolated flash flood risk will exist with this activity as it reaches portions of the I-35 and I-40 corridors between 03-06Z. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5LDWClm_O3JGTmZlsuvM0KsMjEsrj4YVHFyny0ObNALqW30hdhVEw7eXwr6h4s1tEvt0= 7U8aGWGw5JzCUB90X0D0mRQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...PUB...TOP... TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39840127 39749900 39199732 37749677 36509660=20 35149671 35149824 35589940 36240007 36500088=20 36620174 37300239 39660202=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .