Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1138
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 23:53:12

ACUS11 KWNS 172353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172352=20
TXZ000-180145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...West-central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325...

Valid 172352Z - 180145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for significant hail greater than 2 inches in
diameter, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will continue
across parts of west-central Texas over the next one to two hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Lubbock shows a
cluster of severe storms across the Low Rolling Plains of
west-central Texas. A supercell has become intense in Jones and
Stonewall County, about 100 statute miles to the southeast of
Lubbock. This supercell is in a very favorable thermodynamic
environment for large hail, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE near 5000
J/kg and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8.5 C/km. As the storm moves
east-southeastward towards Stephenville, Texas, hailstones of
greater than 3 inches in diameter will be possible. A wind damage
and isolated tornado threat will also continue with this supercell.
Further south, a potential for wind damage and large hail is
expected to continue across the central and southern part of WW 325
over the next couple of hours.

...Broyles.. 06/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4TXEV0WYfgt5zN2wgsbyJZrjhdI6XaLlU7lSHGpGn5kAmBcWD1Oj1AqbSAaxS_GodRigM66fY=
tsl3iPalATc-v9SPXs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32700031 33240016 33489975 33269847 32519800 31689837
            31509902 31970001 32420029 32700031=20


=3D =3D =3D
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