Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1136
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 23:00:09

ACUS11 KWNS 172300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172259=20
KSZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Western and Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 327...328...

Valid 172259Z - 180100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 327, 328
continues.

SUMMARY...The wind-damage threat is expected to increase over the
next few hours across western Kansas. Wind gusts above 70 knots will
be possible. A tornado threat is also expected over southwest Kansas
towards the Oklahoma state-line.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Dodge City shows a linear
MCS in far eastern Colorado, with discrete supercells located ahead
of the line from the Oklahoma Panhandle into far southwest Kansas. A
vorticity maxima, evident on water vapor imagery, is providing
strong large-scale ascent favorable for continued MCS development.
The environment in this area is characterized by moderate
instability, 40 knots of deep-layer shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. The line will begin to accelerate eastward into the
stronger instability across western Kansas over the next few hours,
where wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along and just
ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A tornado threat will
likely develop with more isolated supercells ahead of the line that
move into southwest Kansas from the Oklahoma Panhandle. These
supercells may also produce hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
diameter.

...Broyles.. 06/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8P1HIA8lZ26qRbkRGPy9Rwf_va_-VbBkGE_kz5ikbAoFjXl4pru7h-nYnHW2XE7rXNu6vTizS=
2Q2063z68D2eWBSVP0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37079915 37449857 37939852 38299866 38559921 38800119
            38570187 38140203 37490200 37170186 37020131 37079915=20


=3D =3D =3D
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