Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1129
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 20:52:08

ACUS11 KWNS 172052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172051=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-172245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...Oklahoma
Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma...portions of the eastern Texas
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 172051Z - 172245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a
dryline over the next 1 to 2 hours, with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and a couple tornadoes possible.  Trends will
continue to be monitored and a watch is likely in the next 1 to 2
hours.

DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorm development is likely to occur
along a dryline that extends through the central Texas Panhandle
north across the western OK Panhandle over the next couple of hours,
within a moderate-strongly unstable environment and 50-60 kts of
westerly deep-layer shear.  Large to very large hail will be
possible given very steep mid-level lapse rates and considerable
CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer, and damaging gusts will also be
possible.  Some potential will exist for low-level rotation and a
tornado or two as low-level hodographs become more favorable towards
early evening.  With time, storms are likely to merge into an
eastward-moving MCS capable of all severe hazards and an increasing
risk for significant severe wind gusts.=20

Short-term trends will continue to be monitored and a watch will
likely be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours.

...Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!41cxgpORxHDHo5zq34E5P496-spk6kW3wAMx-7XvBMFWBeEBYDdkVhqRt4xtaBLRAXSVQ4chW=
YxdGVmI4pmJm2YqNC4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   34869874 34750020 34810105 35230128 35710144 36140210
            36560278 37100289 37580238 37830191 37860109 37760053
            37619996 37259937 36589894 35829864 34869874=20


=3D =3D =3D
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