Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1128
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 20:44:39

ACUS11 KWNS 172044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172044=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-172215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and
the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323...

Valid 172044Z - 172215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323
continues.

SUMMARY...Large to very large hail will remain possible with
multiple supercells this afternoon. Damaging winds may also occur.

DISCUSSION...Widely spaced supercells are ongoing this afternoon
from far southern MS into southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle.
With both strong to extreme instability and 40-50+ kt of effective
bulk shear present across this region, very large hail of 2+ inches
will remain the primary severe concern in the short term as these
supercells develop south-southeastward. The strongest supercell at
the moment per recent MRMS MESH estimates is located over far
southwestern MS, moving into southeastern LA. Steepened low-level
lapse rates should also support occasional damaging winds with any
convective downdrafts. Although low-level westerly winds remain
fairly modest, there is strengthening/veering to northwesterly with
height through mid levels. Up to 100 m2/s2 of effective SRH suggest
a tornado remains possible with any intense supercell.

...Gleason.. 06/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7L-jRbTq13jhFz8SvC6U5WkJJsDi7koNKuXLuHi9KgiPrpkzdQxQH1dlKnRhNpHNtB78W5m8b=
EYncdMUpMjVlbRXsHg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31369164 31898903 31518606 30228433 30388651 30229090
            31369164=20


=3D =3D =3D
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