Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1126
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 19:31:08

ACUS11 KWNS 171931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171930=20
TXZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northwest/west-central into central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 171930Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms producing very large hail (2-3+ inches in
diameter) and significant severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are expected
to develop and move eastward this afternoon/evening. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...19Z surface analysis shows a dryline extending
southward across west TX. Strong daytime heating has already
encouraged surface temperatures to reach into the 90s and low 100s
both ahead and behind the dryline. As an upper trough over the
central/southern Rockies continues to eject over the High Plains
this afternoon, a 50+ kt westerly mid-level jet will overspread more
of the southern High Plains. Additional diurnal heating and ascent
attendant to the mid-level jet should erode lingering convective
inhibition along the length of the dryline, extending from northwest
into west-central TX.

At least isolated convective initiation appears increasingly likely
by 20-21Z (3-4 PM CDT) along the dryline, although determining
precise locations for a more favored corridor of development remains
uncertain. There does appear to be a residual boundary, probably
from prior convection, extending from near KSNK to KSWW to the
vicinity of KABI that may help focus convective initiation. Recent
visible satellite imagery also shows towering cu north of San Angelo
TX. Once thunderstorms form, they are expected to quickly become
severe. Very rich low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates
are contributing to around 2500-3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE. 40-50+ kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with initial
development, with a threat for very large hail (2-3+ inches in
diameter). Although details remain unclear, some upscale growth into
a severe MCS may occur this evening across western north TX and
vicinity. Significant damaging winds of 60-80 mph appear possible if
this mode transition occurs.

...Gleason/Hart.. 06/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5ay8HO9J-kCZqfEtqYS-fw5l_gABTNQyZTdpVdzBLfjNNvGbTtt7_Hm5Ml93c4AJKagywmCeE=
sKJiLaLqAmERfoTGdk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32100070 33900090 34510072 34479999 33769824 32809793
            31469808 30989843 30559897 30509980 31110074 32100070=20


=3D =3D =3D
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