Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1125
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 19:25:37

ACUS11 KWNS 171925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171924=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...far eastern nebraska...northern Missouri...into
central Iowa.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171924Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in
coverage/intensity this afternoon. Severe hail is expected to remain
the primary threat though isolated damaging winds are also possible.
A weather watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...As of 1920 UTC, early afternoon satellite and radar
analysis showed deepening cumulus/incipient thunderstorms developing
over portions of far eastern NE and western IA. Afternoon heating
ahead of a mid-level vortmax will continue to favor storm
development through the afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE) from area RAP soundings will support a few robust
updrafts. Displaced north of the stronger mid-level flow, vertical
shear is somewhat less favorable for widespread severe storms, but
effective shear of 20-25 kt may still support some organized=20
multicell and or transient supercell structures. Given the potential
for sustained updrafts with large low-level buoyancy (0-3km CAPE
100-150 J/kg), severe hail and brief funnel clouds will be possible
in the strongest storms. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible
given the steeper low-level lapse rates from afternoon heating. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible this afternoon.

...Lyons/Hart.. 06/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5xJOqpDKhZ9wN5Hfr_VOVGEngHSVQzziJo3r5y33YuAH2yKDBDI6sOT_cwSTufL1ikqiQPcGA=
1mthE6gufbojDLqewk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41789626 41909627 42769590 43119539 43399485 43489451
            43389418 43029351 42569316 42099296 41719287 41199290
            40899292 40589355 40419440 40359538 40479579 41789626=20


=3D =3D =3D
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