Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 18:18:37

AWUS01 KWNH 171818
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-180016-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0512
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...central/eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171816Z - 180016Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms should increase in coverage over
the course of the afternoon.  These storms will produce heavy
rainfall on wet soils, promoting runoff and potential flash
flooding.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicate deepening
convection along the immediate Colorado Front Range and adjacent
higher terrain from Teller to Huerfano Counties.  These storms
were fairly slow-moving, but initially resided in a relatively dry
airmass (0.5 PW values) supporting brief heavy rainfall and spots
of 0.5-0.8 inch/hr rain rates.  Forcing for ascent associated with
a mid-level shortwave trough just upstream was also aiding in
thunderstorm development, while downstream insolation and cool
mid-level temps have allowed or 1000+ J/kg SBCAPE to develop and
also support ongoing convection.

Over time, both models and observations support an increase in
convective coverage beginning initially in central Colorado.=20
Storms will migrate eastward into a more moist airmass that will
enable heavier rain rates while also traversing areas that
received copious amounts of rain (ranging from 2-10 inches) over
the past week.  FFGs are very low as a result (less than 1
inch/hr), and although upscale growth may contribute to somewhat
faster storm motions compared to yesterday afternoon,
susceptibility/moistness of ground conditions and deepening
convection should result in a few instances of FFG exceedence and
potential flash flooding.

Current indications are that storms over central Colorado should
gradually make eastward progress across the state, reaching the
CO/KS border area through 00Z this evening.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!67FpZZ_wZArXA62HiHzgvNcaIlSCFNVq5raGdezTm1eigjllw4VyTLuCu5febmsuRfAF=
pSadg_MhcLybRxbhGPqzpG8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40310354 39950223 38670198 37500208 37160283=20
            37180427 37410521 37760583 38760602 39860574=20
            40170517=20

=3D =3D =3D
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