Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 18:11:43 AWUS01 KWNH 171811 FFGMPD FLZ000-180010- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...east-central to southeastern FL Peninsula Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 171810Z - 180010Z SUMMARY...Localized areas of heavy rain are expected to impact portions of the east-central to southeastern FL Peninsula through 00Z. Rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr will be possible along with possible flash flooding. DISCUSSION...Regional radar, satellite and surface observations at 1745Z showed a cluster of convection largely offshore of the central to northern FL Peninsula but with thunderstorms continuing to initiate along remnant outflow boundaries that extended southwestward and westward...from near Lake Kissimmee and locations westward over interior portions of central FL. Additional thunderstorms were ongoing south of this region along the urban corridor of the southeastern Peninsula near and south of FLL, with a rain cooled outflow boundary to the immediate west. The environment across central to southern FL was estimated to have 1.9 to just over 2 inches of precipitable water along with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE via the 17Z SPC mesoanalysis. 850-300 mb mean layer winds were from the WNW at 25-30 kt, with a similar vector alignment to the 850 mb flow via area VAD wind plots. Meanwhile, winds aloft were fairly dlffluent between upper troughing along the East Coast of the U.S. and a large ridge centered over Mexico. Rain cooled outflow over the central Peninsula is expected to continue dropping southward while helping to initiate additional thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. These storms are expected to migrate southeastward and possibly join with potential convective development along the outflow boundary currently located west of the southeastern urban corridor within the highly unstable airmass. Kinematic profiles support the potential for training/back-building of cells which will produce rainfall rates of at least 1-2 in/hr, but 2-3 in/hr will be easily attainable with any of the slower moving storms. Given the potential for slow moving areas of heavy rain over the urban corridor, flash flooding may develop, although the coverage is expected to be fairly isolated. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-hMy2CzGXOlqRR5G2wyvIW3gjV58tRso9BuFpTWhk189cre2vZBHaqjqUljXp3dncA40= YYt3gnBsD5UMNcqQgZdDhf0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 27918044 27788015 26807976 26017984 25408004=20 25248022 25378049 25868060 26308056 26828052=20 27288064 27618073 27868062=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .