Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1124
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 18:08:09

ACUS11 KWNS 171808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171807=20
COZ000-172000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 171807Z - 172000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to intensify over the
next few hours and move east/southeast off of the higher terrain and
across southeast Colorado.  Damaging gusts and large to very large
hail hail will be the primary threats, although a tornado will also
be possible.  A watch will be needed shortly.

DISCUSSION...A focused region of large-scale ascent moving east
across central CO will combine with moist southeasterly low-level
flow and contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage over the
higher terrain west of Interstate 25 over the next 1-2 hours. These
storms will move east/southeast across southeast CO where visible
imagery suggests that convective inhibition continues to weaken.
Continued daytime heating and lower 50s surface dewpoints will
combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to result in moderate
MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercell structures
and line segments capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.  More
discrete supercells will be capable of very large hail (in excess of
2 inches) given ample CAPE in the -10C to -30 layer. Damaging wind
gusts will become more likely with time as linear structures evolve
with eastward extent.=20

Convective trends are being monitored and a watch will likely be
needed shortly.

...Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!743dloDuIDognjiHKIyKW6m41i5H0-Te9oeHVQWHEwHUUgXcrer4qYZTmStq8ak9iOSyd3MWu=
CrsAjRtlwgC3Lr2fPw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37050354 37080401 37230474 37860480 38320477 38650452
            38750403 38740353 38650275 38460208 37780204 37470210
            37070227 37010281 37050354=20


=3D =3D =3D
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