Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 16:42:10 ACUS01 KWNS 171642 SWODY1 SPC AC 171640 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US...AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA.... CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTION ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over a vast area from Colorado to Florida, and central Texas to the lower Missouri Valley. Within that, a focused corridor of threat for damaging hail, significant wind damage, and a few tornadoes, extends from southeastern Colorado to northwestern Arkansas, and into north Texas. ....Southeast CO to Arkansas... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southwest CO. This feature will cross the Rockies and begin affecting the High Plains this afternoon, promoting scattered thunderstorms off the high terrain and foothills. Initial supercell storms over southeast CO will be in a region of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE, favorable for large hail. As activity moves/builds eastward into southwest KS, the northern TX Panhandle, and northwest OK, it will encounter high CAPE values and increasingly strong low-level winds. Supercells with very large hail, significant wind damage potential, and a few tornadoes may affect this area during the evening. Upscale growth of this cluster of storms into a fast-moving bowing complex remains likely, with activity moving across northern OK into northwest AR tonight. ....North TX... A 50-60 knot westerly mid-level jet max is accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough over CO. This wind max will move across the TX Panhandle this evening, with enhanced forcing for ascent affecting the dryline over west TX. This will lead to rapid supercell development in a very moist and unstable environment. Very large hail and damaging winds are expected with the stronger cells. Several CAM solutions favor splitting supercells, with left-movers tracking northeastward toward the Red River through the evening with a continued risk of significant severe. Therefore have extended the ENH risk into these areas. ....MS/AL/FL... Morning model guidance shows a subtle shortwave trough currently over west TN tracking southeastward into AL, with an associated 40-50 knot mid-level wind max moving across MS. Strong daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer ahead of these features should result in scattered severe thunderstorm development by mid afternoon over parts of southeast MS, southern AL, and the FL Panhandle. Given the strength of the deep-layer shear, supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected. A tornado or two is also possible as the storms approach the coast late this afternoon. Activity should move offshore after dark. ....Western IA... A well-defined remnant MCV is noted this morning over central/eastern NE. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this circulation will maintain near 70F dewpoints over western IA, where strong heating is occurring. This should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized multicell or occasional supercell storms capable of hail and damaging winds. Therefore have added a SLGT risk to this region for this afternoon and early evening. ...Hart/Gleason.. 06/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .