Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1123
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 15:43:37

ACUS11 KWNS 171543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171543=20
FLZ000-171715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...central and southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171543Z - 171715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms in clusters/short line segments will
continue moving east across portions of central/southern Florida
through early afternoon.  Strong/damaging gusts will be the primary
severe risk, and trends are being monitored for the possibility of a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite shows thunderstorms in
clusters/short line segments over the central FL peninsula at 1535z.
 A recent gust to 57 kt was observed at KMCO/Orlando International
Airport, otherwise most convective gusts thus far have been in the
40 to 55 mph range.  South and east of ongoing storms, daytime
heating is contributing to strong instability (MLCAPE averaging 3000
J/kg). Additional storm development is possible as a mid-level
perturbation within the broadly cyclonic mid-level flow moves east
across the area. Mid-level flow of 30-35 kts will be sufficient for
organized storms/clusters.  Low-level flow remains veered, however,
and some uncertainty exists regarding the coverage of severe storms
with southward extent.

Current expectations are that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
needed in the next few hours if observational and short-term
guidance trends support sufficient severe storm coverage south of
ongoing storms.

...Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9AHm4BuwLTRAPJXE9YWZbavMGaheXNhr2pENOCSQIw3T5KNQ_DAnFIvaof2SJSfHYeJmK0f-f=
UoauCzc-SZV-RXdz9U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26157999 25948124 27798213 28168208 28648182 28798150
            28868118 28788085 28518044 27197987 26157999=20


=3D =3D =3D
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