Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1122
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 15:04:09

ACUS11 KWNS 171504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171503=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-171700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...southern Mississippi...southeast
Louisiana...southwest Alabama...western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 171503Z - 171700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeast
across the discussion area through early/mid afternoon.  Supercells
capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts will be the
primary severe weather risks.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows increasing
vertical development within a cumulus field in the vicinity of a
nearly stationary front over southern MS at 1500z.  Substantial
diurnal heating of a very moist air mass will result in continued
destabilization and negligible CINH, with MLCAPE in excess of 3500
to 4000 J/kg by early afternoon.  Northwesterly deep-layer shear of
40-45 kts favors the development of supercell storm structures
capable of large to isolated very large hail, and damaging gusts.=20
Storm coverage should increase with time, and storm/boundary
interactions may result in some potential for a tornado.

Observational trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior
to 17z.

...Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4W29UDVbVJrSG3w3eC2CLVKmPdqzhDwJ7gyAklxA8sV_IG0DL3X16TKSlOTfPXKyV3F8r5-I4=
rLMIjU0VVx59pplO50$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31279053 31929055 32149008 32228956 32168875 32088783
            31488638 30698593 30278633 30128729 30188905 30729021
            31279053=20


=3D =3D =3D
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