Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 13:06:05

AWUS01 KWNH 171305
FFGMPD
FLZ000-171800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0509
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...central to northern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171303Z - 171800Z

SUMMARY...Training and merging of cells are expected to produce
heavy rain with rates of 2-3 in/hr in some locations. Localized
totals of 3-5 inches across portions of the northern to central FL
Peninsula may result in flash flooding, but coverage of these
higher totals should be fairly limited through 18Z should they
materialize.

DISCUSSION...A significant increase in the coverage of
thunderstorms has occurred over portions of the north-central FL
Peninsula over the past 1-2 hours as a result of low level forcing
and ascent along a subtle outflow boundary from earlier convection
northwest of the region from earlier this morning. A number of
mesoscale circulations were identified across the region, with one
along the Big Bend of FL intersecting with an estimated 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE via the 12Z SPC mesoanalysis over northwestern into
central FL. The 12Z sounding from TBW matched mesoanalysis data
with MLCAPE of 2315 J/kg due in part to high surface dewpoints of
75-80 F. Aloft, an elongated shortwave was noted from northern MS
into southern GA, tracking southeastward, with highly diffluent
flow aloft over the FL Peninsula.

While the expanding cluster of thunderstorms is expected to follow
a general motion toward the southeast following the observed
motion of the effective outflow boundary, mid-upper level flow and
forecasts of Corfidi vectors toward the south, cell mergers and
short term training at times from west to east may result in high
rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr. While central to northern FL has not
been very wet over the past couple of weeks, localized totals of
3-5 inches cannot be ruled out through 18Z. If these higher end
rainfall totals overlap with any urban or otherwise sensitive
locations, flash flooding could result.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!54RbiviwxMLdhGh8hvuBzyAL4OiSZZUxQerAZtPzSWMjqQfzl9mYY0cssHR_ocjS5UMJ=
PXHdOKh8UiMO3WdXoZuw6Ig$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30028144 29858100 29268055 28518022 27867990=20
            27267990 27078026 27098102 27278210 27408274=20
            27728307 28658323 29258341 29858292=20

=3D =3D =3D
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