Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 07:58:04

ACUS48 KWNS 170758
SWOD48
SPC AC 170756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Some severe potential could linger across parts of the Gulf Coast on
Day 4/Tue where moderate northwest deep-layer flow will coincide
with a strong instability gradient. Confidence in the evolution of
severe potential from southeast TX through LA is low given multiple
days of convection prior to Tuesday. Otherwise, an upper ridge over
the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will
persist through at least Day 5/Wed. This will support transport of
boundary-layer moisture northward into the central/northern Plains.
Periods of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow on the eastern
periphery of a western U.S. upper trough will impinge on the
central/northern High Plains through around Day 6/Thu. This could
support severe potential from western NE northeast into the western
Dakotas and vicinity. However, confidence in location and extent of
severe potential is low, as ill-timed shortwave impulses may result
in stronger forcing for ascent, and better vertical shear, being
displaced from quality boundary-layer moisture/instability. Forecast
guidance depicts a weaker flow regime by the end of the period, and
confidence is low regarding severe potential headed into next
weekend.

...Leitman.. 06/17/2023

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