Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 07:07:37

ACUS03 KWNS 170707
SWODY3
SPC AC 170706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
At least an isolated risk for damaging gusts and hail is expected
across parts of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast on Monday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...

An upper ridge is forecast to build over the Plains and Upper
Midwest on Monday. The upper ridge will be flanked on the east by an
upper trough/low centered over the OH/TN Valley to the Gulf Coast,
and on the west by a developing large-scale upper trough over the
West. Deep-layer flow is expected to be weaker across the Southeast
compared to prior days leading up to Monday, but northwesterly
mid/upper flow atop southerly low-level flow will provide sufficient
vertical shear for some organized convection.

At the surface, low pressure over western KY/TN is expected to drift
east through the period. As this occurs, a weak surface boundary
will sag southward across the TN Valley vicinity. A very moist
airmass, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints, will
remain in place across the central Gulf Coast/Southeast. Strong
instability coupled with modest vertical shear will support at least
isolated strong/severe thunderstorm potential. Damaging gusts and
hail will be the main hazards with convection on Monday across
portions of the central Gulf Coast states into GA.

...Leitman.. 06/17/2023

$$

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