Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 05:45:06 ACUS02 KWNS 170544 SWODY2 SPC AC 170543 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from portions of the Ozarks to the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, though isolated large to very large hail also is possible. ....ArkLaTex vicinity to the Central Gulf Coast... A few midlevel shortwave impulses will be the focus for severe thunderstorm activity from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the central Gulf Coast and parts of the FL Peninsula on Sunday. One wave will be located over the FL Peninsula during the morning. A cluster or line of southward-propagating convection over the central Peninsula may be ongoing at the beginning of the period, posing mainly a risk for sporadic strong gusts given strong instability, steep midlevel lapse rates and a high PW airmass. Another convectively enhanced impulse is forecast across southern/coastal MS/AL Sunday morning. Convection associated with this activity will quickly shift offshore by mid-morning, as it tracks southeast along the marine front and narrow zone of weak inhibition along an axis of strong instability. Southerly low-level flow through the day will maintain upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast/Lower MS Valley ahead of the main mid/upper shortwave trough, which is forecast to be over the southern Plains Sunday morning. An additional cluster or bowing segment (a continuation of overnight storms from the Day 1/Sat period) is forecast to be ongoing over eastern OK at the start of the period. This activity may be strong to severe, and is forecast to shift east/southeast along an instability gradient oriented northwest to southeast from AR toward southern MS/AL. Early capping over the region is expected to erode as increasing large-scale ascent, and warm advection ahead of the shortwave trough, overspreads the region. One or more bowing clusters of storms is expected through the morning and into the afternoon/evening. This will result in swaths of strong/severe/damaging gusts. Given large instability and steep midlevel lapse rates amid strong vertical shear, widely scattered large to isolated very large hail also will be possible. ...Leitman.. 06/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .