Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 05:04:57

AWUS01 KWNH 170504
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-171002-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0508
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170502Z - 171002Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
areas of the central High Plains going into the overnight hours.
Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A rather well-defined shortwave trough continues to
eject east-northeast out across the central High Plains late this
evening and is interacting with a slow-moving front and the
pooling of a moderately unstable airmass along it. Strong to
locally severe thunderstorms are focused across areas of southeast
CO and up through northwest KS, and the recent trends suggest an
MCV is beginning to evolve over western KS as the activity
continues to organize into a larger scale MCS.

MLCAPE values across areas of western KS remain locally as high as
1000 J/kg, and this coupled with convergent low-level flow along
the front and DPVA/divergence flow aloft with the approaching
shortwave should yield a continuation of organized convection over
the next few hours.

However, with the loss of diurnal heating, boundary layer CIN will
eventually become problematic for the current level of convective
organization, and eventually there should be a weakening trend of
the MCS activity later in the night as it advances farther east
out across the central Plains. The low-level jet is also forecast
to remain rather modest and this also will tend to favor an
eventual weakening of convection.

In the near-term, rainfall rates with the more organized and
stronger convective cores will remain as high as 1 to 2
inches/hour, and some additional storm totals of as much as 3 to 4
inches can be expected before the convection begins to weaken.
Additional scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9e8JVTGzod52k4JL3vQ18JCXuwQO7Jx-LwlfPKdZXv_nh2OWmqP2b_izAFjaLPzv1Ia7=
gcEKFGPxodUcsmWtkkLHZ3I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40749967 40379780 39449759 38499904 37620026=20
            36910184 36890327 37340390 38000368 38910217=20
            40240108=20

=3D =3D =3D
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