Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 04:22:28

AWUS01 KWNH 170422
FFGMPD
TXZ000-170720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0507
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170420Z - 170720Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible
across portions of the Texas Hill Country over the next few hours
from slow-moving showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery shows a
well-organized cluster of very cold-topped and slow-moving
thunderstorms impacting portions of Kimble County and especially
to the north and east of Junction, TX. The activity is focused
quite close to a quasi-stationary front where MLCAPE values of as
much as 2000 to 3000 J/kg are noted along with strong vertical
shear profiles.

The cluster of storms may continue to persist for a few more hours
before then weakening as boundary layer CIN/cooling ensues with
the loss of daytime heating. The flow aloft over the region is
rather diffluent in between the upper trough focused over the
central High Plains and the subtropical ridge over the western
Gulf of Mexico, and this will tend to support the convective
activity as well at least in the near-term.

Rainfall rates continue to be as high as 2+ inches/hour, and
locally an additional 3 to 4 inches of rain will be possible over
the next 2 to 3 hours before the activity then weakens. Some
additional flash flooding will be possible as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5N_cu1aS_55WJz2j5s6Wf-MhOxXDXluBRIsV9GphawZMY2ANBGAl8a7Klq-fSW3KDY8b=
9lhXOZoa5IN6SW6brvIKYDc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30879972 30679905 30279851 29959875 30029942=20
            30380007 30700010=20

=3D =3D =3D
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