Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 03:56:25 AWUS01 KWNH 170356 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170955- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0506 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1155 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast MS...Southern AL...Western FL Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 170355Z - 170955Z SUMMARY...New rounds of heavy rainfall from strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be arriving over the next several hours. Areas of flash flooding will be likely given very wet/saturated soil conditions on the ground and elevated streamflows. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery in conjunction with area dual-pol radar shows a strong to severe complex of thunderstorms dropping southeast across areas of south-central to southeast MS and through southern AL. This activity is associated with a digging shortwave impulse and is interacting with a quasi-stationary front draped once again across portions of the central Gulf Coast. A substantial amount of moisture and instability is focused along this front with PWs generally over 1.75 inches and MLCAPE values of as much as 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Coinciding with this instability is a northwest to southeast axis of strong effective bulk shear reaching as high as 40 to 60 kts. This is helping to facilitate the high degree of convective organization, and should help maintain a focus of enhanced convective activity over areas of the central Gulf Coast region over the next several hours. Very heavy rainfall is expected locally over portions of southern MS and far southern AL over the next few hours, with the activity likely impacting areas of the western Fl Panhandle as well. Already the latest radar trends are showing the convection aligning itself in a general northwest to southeast fashion and parallel to the deeper layer steering flow. This is strongly supporting a training convective event that will unfold over the next 3 to 6 hours. The latest 00Z HREF guidance supports rainfall rates reaching as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger cells, and the level of potential cell-training over the next several hours will support locally as much as 3 to 6 inches of new rainfall. Much of this rainfall will be occurring over areas that already have very sensitive soil conditions and high streamflows from recent heavy rainfall. Portions of far southern AL east of Mobile, and especially the western FL Panhandle around Pensacola, saw extremely heavy rain just last night with some areas surpassing 6 to 12 inches of rain. This latest round of heavy rain is very likely to result in new areas of flash flooding, and some of it may be significant going into the overnight hours given the saturated soil conditions. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Vb6a0ddFNCfDuk_CkbyPUjpk1eCnp47RLznT_wtr388t4ilsFue2moeXFK4nLYjJdCb= PpOPOh3WjcGs3w3Ly8spars$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32189004 32178947 31848866 31558793 31338692=20 31128651 30808630 30398659 30238746 30258818=20 30488909 31068999 31759029=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .