Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 01:12:23

AWUS01 KWNH 170112
FFGMPD
TXZ000-170409-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0505
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
912 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170109Z - 170409Z

Summary...Deep convection has matured across portions of central
Texas in a very volatile environment.  Local instances of flash
flooding continue to be possible through 03-04Z.

Discussion...Convergence along a weak surface boundary across
central Texas has allowed for intense convection to materialize
along a general axis from near Junction east-northeastward to near
Waco.  Extreme instability is allowing for storms to exhibit a
variety of storm motions ranging from nearly stationary (east of
Junction) to southward at 30 mph (south of Waco) despite
appreciable westerly steering flow aloft.  The volatile
environment was allowing for most mature cells to produce 1
inch/hr rain rates, while slower-moving and/or backbuilding cells
(near Junction or instance) were producing rain rates closer to 3
inches/hr for an extended period.  Local MRMS Flash responses were
also extreme in areas just southwest of Fredericksburg.

Ongoing convection is benefiting from a very weakly capped airmass
and mature cold pools to sustain local updraft development and
enhance cell maintenance.  Over time, cooling boundary layer
should result in enough low-level stabilization to weaken those
updrafts and lead to and eventual lessening of convective
intensity and rain rates.   This process will take a few hours to
materialize, and CAMs (particularly the Nam3) diminishes
convection completely by the 03-04Z timeframe.  Relatively high
FFG thresholds (generally above 2.5 inch/hr) should also keep the
flash flood threat isolated/limited unless storms manage to make
it in to more sensitive/urbanized land areas.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8ZsD72Q5VDm0bPzbS9c1y9dtTLbsuptf9mE3SjrGx1MafLWhzjLL5DfK0HA75LOO3AwS=
faQ9mOA24EWrNQgRIacRvjg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32289614 31889558 31059560 30299670 29779866=20
            29729946 30539997 31089941 32039780=20

=3D =3D =3D
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