Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 17 2023 01:02:01 ACUS01 KWNS 170101 SWODY1 SPC AC 170100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will continue in parts of the central High Plains, southern Plains and Southeast this evening. ....Central High Plains... The latest water vapor imagery has a shortwave trough moving through the central U.S. Large-scale ascent ahead of the feature will support continued convective development across the central High Plains this evening. High-resolution radar data from Pueblo shows a cluster of strong to severe storms located in eastern Colorado. Ahead of the storms, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range across far eastern Colorado and western Kansas. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Pueblo shows strong directional shear in the boundary layer with 30 to 35 knots of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for isolated large hail and wind damage this evening. Although the primary mode has been multicellular so far, a supercell could develop as the cluster organizes over the next few hours. Large hail will be likely with any supercell that can form. Otherwise, a wind-damage threat will likely persist into the mid to late evening, as an MCS moves further east across the central Plains. ....Central and East Texas... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the southern Texas Hill Country east-northeastward east Texas, ahead of a cold front advancing southward across the southern Plains. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to strong instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. This, combined with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, evident on central Texas WSR-88D VWPs, will likely continue to support a severe threat this evening. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats. In spite of the favorable thermodynamic environment, the ongoing storms appear to have peaked and have trended down some in intensity. For this reason, the severe threat is expected to remain somewhat isolated this evening. ....Southeast... Latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass in place across much of the Southeast, with an east-to-west outflow boundary extending from central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. Within the moist airmass, RAP analysis suggests that strong instability is present with MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. As the ongoing storms move southeastward into the stronger instability, a severe threat is expected to be maintained. WSR-88D VWPs in the central Gulf Coast area suggest that strong deep-layer shear is present. The WSR-88D VWP at LIX shows 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 60 knot range with northwest flow in the mid-levels. This should support a continued potential for supercells with large hail. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter this evening. A wind-damage threat is also expected this evening, especially along the leading edge of the more intense line segments. ....Mid-Atlantic... At the surface, a cold front is advancing southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the front from southern Maryland into eastern Virginia. Although the stronger cells could be capable of hail and marginally severe wind gusts this evening, instability has decreased across the Mid-Atlantic. This trend will likely continue enabling any severe threat to diminish over the next hour or two. ...Broyles.. 06/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .