Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1117
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 23:39:03

ACUS11 KWNS 162338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162338=20
KSZ000-COZ000-170145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...eastern Colorado and western Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319...

Valid 162338Z - 170145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319, and a downstream Severe
Thunderstorm Watch into Kansas will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...A few severe storms have largely remained discrete
across eastern Colorado this afternoon.  As the storms continue to
move eastward into the evening, the expectation is that the severe
weather threat will continue into Kansas as storms grow upscale into
one or more clusters.  While this is an atypical pattern for warm
season MCSs across the region (being north of an 850 mb front),
there will be increasing warm-air advection at 700 mb this evening
with sufficient instability and shear to support eastward
propagating clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Thus, a
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch into western Kansas will likely
be needed in the next couple of hours.

...Jirak/Grams.. 06/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4UuklUpCVyMmbK1EHYl0rxT12WjpAFmSQ_GCbp2AqxYm0gWEwMkv9dNWEmrsUaIidp2f0DTJ_=
FOu2ZtaFAeRoQX75FE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37480419 38430458 38990442 39430301 39860136 39930022
            39209973 38149997 37890043 37610268 37480419=20


=3D =3D =3D
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