Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 19:59:18

AWUS01 KWNH 161959
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-170157-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0502
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...northern New York State eastward to Maine

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161957Z - 170157Z

Summary...Slow-moving storms could pose an isolated flash flood
risk over the next several hours.  Localized 1-1.5 inch/hr rain
rates can be expected during that timeframe.

Discussion...Scattered convection has expanded in coverage in the
discussion area over the past 1-2 hours.  The storms are located
north of a band of clouds over southern New England and central
New York, and are focused in an area where insolation has allowed
for 70s F surface temps and instability to peak in the 1000 J/kg
range (SBCAPE).  Weak ascent due to proximity of a mid-level wave
to the southwest was also likely supporting the activity.  Wind
fields aloft were only in the 5-15 knot range, allowing for slow
and occasionally erratic storm motions.  These storm motions and
areas of 1-1.2 inch PW values were allowing for rain rates to peak
in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range on a localized basis.  These rates were
exceeding FFG thresholds (hovering around 1-2 inch/hr thresholds)
locally.

Models/CAMs suggest that this activity will continue to persist
through peak heating hours, with a gradual weakening of storm
intensity expected in the early evening (around 00Z or so).  The
flash flood threat (already isolated) should also follow this
trend, with decreasing potential expected after dark.  Again,
coverage of storms and relatively weak instability profiles
suggest that the ongoing flash flood threat should remain fairly
isolated.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-TWDaV9TKmuFKznwmZVC05L8BUinGJp-cgUpA-rHhz3YQn0tvaoJl0uB7f_nHKG2NMFB=
q204ohTyrMwQ6tLd8xnIORQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...BUF...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   46056959 45536846 44596905 43987087 43787360=20
            43727491 44287586 44587530 44917333 45327069=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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