Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 19:32:20

AWUS01 KWNH 161932
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-162330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0501
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Arkansas, southern Missouri, western
Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161930Z - 162330Z

Summary...Slow-moving storms are producing localized 1-3 inch
hourly rates, and a few instances of runoff/flash flooding could
result.

Discussion...Scattered convection has developed in earnest along
the general axis from near Springfield, MO to near Memphis, TN.=20
These cells have formed on the north side of a dissipating cloud
canopy, where strong insolation, abundant moisture, and steep (7+
C/km) lapse rates aloft have fostered 3000 J/kg MLCAPE along the
axis of robust storm development.  The storms are also located
just northeast of a seasonably strong 500mb jet, and relatively
weak steering flow aloft was allowing for storm motions in the
5-15 mph range.  These speeds, combined with PW values of around
1.6 inches are supporting efficient rainfall and localized areas
of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates beneath the most persistent storms.

Ongoing trends should continue for a few hours.  Eventually,
continued convective overturning should lead to stabilization and
a gradual lessening of convective coverage, although this process
will likely take time to materialize through 23Z or so.  There is
a non-zero chance of upscale growth into a forward-propagating
linear segment or cluster, but this seems unlikely given weak
low-level shear across the region.  The overall scenario supports
'pulse-type' convection persisting for the next 2-4 hours, with
local rain rates exceeding FFG thresholds at times (ranging from
1.5-3 inches/hr) and potentially prompting runoff/localized flash
flooding.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6z95T1ULf8EDCfASdFwrjQuB7ZaQKAzji_ezi36ajArO_CWVuBN-6qLFlAeAds2KfZsb=
36Sc-jAQ1xzWHEYAZ_nivlk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37709290 37109089 35718907 35188884 34848920=20
            35059060 35669229 36659332 37579375=20

=3D =3D =3D
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