Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1107
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 19:15:57

ACUS11 KWNS 161915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161915=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-162115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...South-Central MO...Much of AR...Far western
TN...Far Northwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161915Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms continue to develop across the
region, with some storms strong enough to produce large hail and
damaging gusts. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for
potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Earlier convective cluster diminished as mid-level flow
weakened and it progresses east of the better warm-air advection.
However, additional activity is now developing in its wake across
central AR as well as along a weak front/differential heating zone
extending from southwest MO southeast across northern AR. Dewpoints
within this baroclinic zone are in the low 70s and temperatures are
the upper 80s, helping to support strong buoyancy. Much of this
region is on the northern edge of the stronger mid-level flow,
limiting the vertical shear and somewhat displacing these ongoing
storms and the stronger buoyancy from the stronger shear farther
south.=20

As such, a multicellular storm mode is anticipated from southern MO
into the Ark-La-Miss, with some uncertainty regarding how storm
coverage and evolution trends with time. One or more clusters may
end up evolving out of these storms. A greater chance for supercells
exists farther south (across central AR), where the shear is more
favorable. Given the strong buoyancy, large hail and damaging gusts
are the primary severe risk. Convective trends will be monitored
closely for potential watch issuance.

...Mosier/Hart.. 06/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!88DcF0fxZGOqIpBAQdEDKCCDwMmFZcla_KushmMLc7KmSoyM-un8UFDstSaxYQxbNh2HQwy2P=
aGVIqNknCANQpnImeM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37439399 36849101 35288942 33898995 33479108 34199295
            35139398 36099415 37439399=20


=3D =3D =3D
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