Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1104
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 18:36:59

ACUS11 KWNS 161836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161836=20
KSZ000-COZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...Eastern/East-Central CO...Far Western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 161836Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity from central into eastern CO this afternoon. Hail is
possible with these storms early, with damaging gusts more likely
later this afternoon and evening. The threat for damaging gust will
likely continue in western KS.

DISCUSSION...The air mass across eastern CO continues to destabilize
amid strong daytime heating ahead of a shortwave trough moving
through the Four Corner vicinity. A corridor of slightly higher
dewpoints exists along a weak front that parallels the Palmer Divide
in CO and then arcs back northeast through northwest KS.
Mesoanalysis estimates that minimal convective inhibition exists
along and north of this corridor, while some inhibition still
remains within the more mixed boundary layer farther south.=20

Expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to gradually increase over
the higher terrain before then moving eastward into the lower
elevations. Instability will remain modest, with around 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE anticipated across much of eastern CO this afternoon.
Southwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen slightly ahead of the
approaching shortwave, which, when combined with the more easterly
surface winds, will result in vertically veering wind profile. The
initial development may be more discrete, with hail as the primary
risk. Thereafter, one or more bowing segments may develop, with wind
gusts becoming the primary risk. The west-to-east orientated surface
boundary may act as a favored corridor for upscale growth and
forward propagation.

...Mosier/Hart.. 06/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7nBMAg42HcWREHzPo6osIg5lpWwwrpaMKQ3FOT5xejP_y1DWxFGcp_zbrl_SlpgUvaAvd8POR=
5prot25828qw8pqdWk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38400487 39470448 39800216 39530134 38580133 37730168
            37670302 37790407 38040480 38400487=20


=3D =3D =3D
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