Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 17:53:27 ACUS02 KWNS 161753 SWODY2 SPC AC 161751 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES...... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Great Plains Saturday through Saturday night, with additional strong to severe thunderstorms expected from the central Gulf Coast region into much of Florida. ....Synopsis... Moderately strong southern-stream flow will persist across the southern U.S. Saturday, with one trough within this stream to move across the Southeast, and a second to shift out of the Rockies and into the Kansas/Oklahoma area later in the period. Meanwhile in the northern stream, lows are forecast to reside over western Canada and the Northeast U.S. through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will remain generally in place east-to-west across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states and into Texas, while a second/weak front shifts southeastward across the Plains through Sunday morning. ....Southeastern Colorado southeastward to the Ozarks and Arklatex... Daytime heating of a moist boundary layer near and south of the remnant surface front is expected across the southern Plains area Saturday, and to a somewhat lesser degree northward into Colorado and Kansas ahead of a weaker/secondary front, which will result in moderate to strong destabilization across a large area. This will result in diurnal development of storms -- across portions of the southeastern Colorado area during the afternoon, and in more limited/uncertain degree southward along a west Texas dryline, where capping will be stronger. Developing storms are expected to quickly intensify given the thermodynamic environment, and with moderately strong westerly mid-level flow persisting atop the area, supercells are expected, accompanied by potential for very large hail and damaging winds. With time, one or more areas of convection will likely grow upscale, with some CAMs suggesting two separate clusters evolving (one moving southeastward out of Colorado and a second across central/northern Texas), while others suggest one larger MCS evolving (across the southern Kansas/Oklahoma area as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies during the evening). In any case, any upscale growth should enhance potential for very strong/damaging winds, given the background kinematic environment. As such, an upgrade to enhanced risk is being introduced at this time, which will likely require refinement as the scenario becomes a bit more clear with time. Risk will likely continue through the evening and into the overnight hours, as the convection propagates eastward/east-southeastward toward southern Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana later in the period. ....Southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia and into much of Florida... A complex scenario is forecast across parts of Southeast Saturday, as ongoing convection is expected across parts of Florida, and perhaps portions of the central Gulf Coast states, near and south of the remnant surface front lying west-to-east across the region. Away from early/ongoing convection and associated cloud cover, diurnal destabilization of the moist boundary layer will support additional/widespread convective development, aided by the southeastward advance of mid-level short-wave troughing across the Southeast states. While narrowing down specific corridors of potentially greater severe-weather coverage is difficult at this time, the broadly favorable kinematic environment combined with moderately strong deep-layer flow (40 to 60 kt in the 850 to 500 mb layer) that will spread across the region in conjunction with the aforementioned mid-level troughing suggests risk for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two, with episodic storms/storm clusters across this area through most if not all of the period. ...Goss.. 06/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .