Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 16:32:26 ACUS01 KWNS 161632 SWODY1 SPC AC 161630 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS.... ....SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging thunderstorms winds are possible across parts of the central High Plains, Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic. ....Mid Atlantic... A prominent mid-level trough and associated 50 knot jet max is rotating across the Mid-Atlantic region today. Scattered thunderstorms have already formed along the surface cold front over eastern PA and NJ. These storms will track eastward and offshore, while new activity builds southward into eastern MD/VA. Cool temperatures aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and favorable deep-layer vertical shear will provide support for strong-severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail through the late afternoon. ....CO/KS... Morning model guidance hints at a weak shortwave trough over northern NM approaching the High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong daytime heating/destabilization is occurring along and south of a surface boundary paralleling the Palmer Ridge. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the instability axis by mid-afternoon, tracking eastward into western KS this evening. Early storms will be discrete, with a few supercells producing large hail. As the storms build eastward, upscale growth into bowing structures is expected, with an increasing risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ....AR to AL... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning over northwest AR - ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough over northeast OK. The air mass ahead of these storms over AR/MS is very moist and unstable, with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to reach 3000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify to severe levels by mid-afternoon and track southeastward. Morning CAM solutions vary in the timing/placement of the corridor of greatest risk, ranging from northern MS/AL into northern LA. Regardless, clusters of storms are expected this evening tracking into parts of AL before weakening. Damaging winds and hail will be possible in the strongest cells. ....FL Panhandle... A long-lived MCS is finally decaying as it tracks across the central FL panhandle. This activity is likely to dissipate by mid afternoon, with only a marginal risk of new storms forming on the remnant outflow boundaries. ...Hart/Squitieri.. 06/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .