Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 12:57:43

AWUS01 KWNH 161257
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-161600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0500
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...east-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161254Z - 161600Z

SUMMARY...At least a localized flash flood threat appears likely
for the Gulf Coast from the MS/AL border into the western FL
Panhandle. Additional rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches will be
possible, maybe overlapping extreme rainfall totals which impacted
the western FL Panhandle over the past 12 hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery showed a forward propagating
line of convection racing east between 50-55 kt along the southern
MS/AL border at 1230Z with observed rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1
inch in 15 minutes as the line passed through portions of MS over
the past 1-2 hours. Southeast of the bowing segment was an outflow
boundary which extend from near MOB into the northern Gulf of
Mexico which was related to 5 to 15+ inches of rain which impacted
Pensacola, Warrington and Gulf Breeze overnight, resulting in
major flash flooding. Convective development has been noted ahead
of the advancing MCS along a gradient in CAPE and near the outflow
boundary across far southern AL where an estimated pocket of
1500-3000 J/kg MLcAPE resided (12Z SPC mesoanalysis)

While linear extrapolation of the MCS places the leading edge of
convection near an EUF to ECP line at 15Z, not posing a large
flash flood threat itself, there is some concern for a small area
of training to set up near the Gulf Coast, just on the cool side
of the outflow boundary in the vicinity of Mobile Bay to near the
Escambia County line. Localized 1-3 in/hr rates will be possible
with potential for an additional 3-5 inches over the next 3-4
hours. Given sensitivity from recent heavy rain, including some
possible overlap with heavy rain from the western FL Panhandle,
localized flash flooding is considered likely.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6GCSY7h8Sp7Zky3sqvvPy9LbuhWsGN7e5sIV95NxiopmzCvkUk9pYOida_ifPdj4girI=
lDtbt7nCoRchpP1AOSb9xXU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31458721 31308651 30758622 30308635 30098682=20
            30058728 30138827 30338837 30898844 31328802=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.