Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 08:45:10

AWUS01 KWNH 160845
FFGMPD
FLZ000-161300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0499
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...Big Bend of FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160843Z - 161300Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving clusters of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms this morning will pose additional concerns for flash
flooding given wet antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a slow-moving cluster
of strong convection with extremely heavy rainfall rates moving
across portions of Jefferson and Taylor counties in the Big Bend
of FL. The activity which is exhibiting some backbuilding cell
characteristics has been generally focused along a
quasi-stationary front and is being aided by convergent and very
moist/unstable low-level southwest flow in off the northeast Gulf
of Mexico.

The airmass over the northeast Gulf of Mexico is characterized by
MLCAPE values of over 2500 J/kg and PWs locally near 2 inches and
this coupled with as much as 40 to 50 kts of effective bulk shear
has been favoring some supercell convective activity along the
aforementioned front. The rainfall rates with the ongoing activity
have been on the order of 2.5 to 3.5 inches/hour.

This convection may tend to maintain its level of organization
going through the early morning hours, and the convection is
likely to continue to impact areas of Taylor County and
increasingly portions of Lafayette and Suwannee counties over the
next couple of hours.

HRRR model runs over the last few hours have been supporting some
rainfall totals in the 4 to 7 inch range locally going through
mid-morning. These amounts coupled with wet antecedent conditions
associated with heavy rainfall over the last 24 to 36 hours will
likely result in runoff concerns and additional areas of flash
flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5WE4Yiv7pSl3SqlUSvu7IXux83SaRZ_0jRNB4C0EJ7-JuBQlM4l9plHNl-mzjnB31WZJ=
gL47Ntd-SExWx45FBZWVwKs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30318365 30288295 30068228 29808217 29668236=20
            29678271 29728307 29828350 30078380=20

=3D =3D =3D
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