Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 07:32:27

ACUS03 KWNS 160732
SWODY3
SPC AC 160731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKANSAS
AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA VICINITY INTO PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from portions
of the Ozarks to the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging gusts will
be the main hazard with these storms, though isolated large hail is
also possible.

....Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...

A compact midlevel shortwave trough is forecast over KS/OK Sunday
morning. This trough will east/southeast to the central Gulf Coast
by Monday morning. A belt of 50-60 kt 500 mb westerly flow will
overspread the region, with 30-40 kt of 850-700 mb flow also noted.
A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also persist over the
region atop a very moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the
mid 60s to low 70s F). This will result in a corridor of strong
destabilization by late afternoon into the evening. Convection may
be ongoing Sunday morning across eastern OK and spread east across
parts of AR before additional development during the afternoon in
the ArkLaTex vicinity along outflow from morning convection. One or
more bowing clusters of storms is expected to shift east/southeast
from AR/northern LA toward the MS/AL vicinity, posing a risk for
mainly damaging gusts. Given strong vertical shear and steep
midlevel lapse rates, isolated large hail may also accompany more
discrete storm modes. Current thinking is that storm mode generally
favoring bows/linear development may temper the tornado risk.
However, favorable low-level hodographs and strong 0-1 km SRH
suggest at least low-probability tornado potential will exist.

...Leitman.. 06/16/2023

$$

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