Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1097
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 06:37:23

ACUS11 KWNS 160637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160636=20
FLZ000-160900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...eastern Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 160636Z - 160900Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to persist tonight from the
eastern Florida Panhandle into northern Florida, and a brief tornado
or two cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations across the area indicate a warm
front/theta-e gradient extending from central portions of the FL
Panhandle east/southeastward near the coast. While many stations
over land are reporting dewpoints near 70 F, a few coastal locations
show the very moist tropical air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is
very close to spreading inland. Indeed, multiple buoys confirm
dewpoints in the lower 80s F over the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
which results in very strong instability.

Weak warm advection and minimal CIN are aiding storm formation
currently, due to mean boundary-layer winds out of the southwest
across the theta-e gradient. Although winds around 850 mb may veer
with time, 0-1 km SRH is currently averaging near 150 m2/s2 over
land, and periodic mesocyclones have been observed on radar. Trends
will continue to be monitored for a possible increase in storm
coverage.

...Jewell/Edwards.. 06/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!92Z1iH6kormsRjJfrtT4ulO7J1lcVxEJxyF3vS8ALZBZ1X7Y2Vh0gv0YkXVTWN0n67ROgw-R6=
1VZ-DK7S45TRLEGxFs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30008562 30348483 30548442 30568312 30408283 30148269
            29858259 29608263 29618271 29338298 29398339 29748371
            29998401 29968426 29738458 29468487 29548523 29628540
            30008562=20


=3D =3D =3D
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