Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 06:12:34

AWUS01 KWNH 160612
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-161045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0498
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern CA...Southern NV and Far
Northwest AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160610Z - 161045Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue over the next few hours. A localized threat of flash
flooding will be possible with some of the stronger storms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
scattered cold-topped convection impacting areas of eastern CA and
adjacent areas of southern NV as an upper-level trough and
associated cold front gradually settles south down through the
southern Great Basin and near the southern portion of the Sierra
Nevada.

An axis of moderately unstable air is pooled along and just ahead
of the front with SBCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg noted. The
greatest instability is generally over areas of eastern CA and
this is where the most vigorous areas of convection are currently
seen. The convection though is also occurring within an
anomalously moist airmass with PWs running 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. Consequently, these convective cells are
capable of producing heavy rainfall rates, and the latest MRMS
data does indicate some spotty 1+ inch/hour rates.

Additional convective cloud top cooling has been noted over the
last 30 to 45 minutes and this suggests the ongoing activity will
likely persist at least for a couple more hours. This is also
supported by the 00Z HREF guidance which depicts a fair level of
larger scale ascent lingering over the region overnight from the
aforementioned upper-level trough.

Areas of eastern CA, southern NV and far northwest AZ may see
locally enough rainfall with the high hourly and sub-hourly
rainfall rates to favor a localized threat of flash flooding over
the next few hours before the activity then begins to weaken later
in the night.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9CD-ZIbiYFXZP83ww3cLPmY38tbbDqvqIlaaCHgdLR6PaN1iK2TQrgz5L22_KCQJBC7q=
8mFPa2kqWXg2DWp_MpPC5qw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36931385 36491340 35841352 35231431 34951504=20
            34891561 34961636 35331734 35931793 36541782=20
            36431648 36681525=20

=3D =3D =3D
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