Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 05:59:56 ACUS02 KWNS 160559 SWODY2 SPC AC 160558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern Great Plains Saturday through Saturday night, with additional strong to severe thunderstorm development possible near the central and eastern Gulf coast. ....Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave upper ridge with warm midlevel temperatures is forecast over portions of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. This will result in capping across much of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex for much of the diurnal period. A belt of strong west/southwest southern-stream flow will persist from the southern Rockies vicinity into the central/southern Plains. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is expected to track southeast from the Lower MS Valley toward FL through the period, resulting in strong northwest flow aloft. While 850-700 mb temperatures will be rather warm, cool temperatures aloft will contribute to steep midlevel lapse rates from NM/CO toward the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass will reside to the east of a dryline from southeast CO through west TX into much of the southern/central Plains and the Gulf Coast states. Strong heating of this moist environment, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates, will result in areas of moderate to strong instability from the southern High Plains east/southeast to the central Gulf Coast and FL. This will support strong to severe thunderstorms across a fairly wide area from eastern CO/west TX toward the Lower MS Valley and the central Gulf Coast/FL vicinity. These storms will be capable of mainly large hail and damaging gusts, though at least low-end tornado potential will accompany storms from southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles, and across the central Gulf Coast. After 00z, a midlevel shortwave trough is expected to eject from the central/southern Rockies into the Plains. Stronger height falls associated with the approaching trough will result in a developing low-level jet across the southern Plains during the evening/overnight. Additionally, increasing large-scale ascent will support erosion of capping across western/central OK. Storms may develop into bowing clusters during the evening and pose some continued severe risk eastward into western/central OK during the nighttime hours. ...Leitman.. 06/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .