Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 04:38:04 AWUS01 KWNH 160438 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-160835- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0497 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1235 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Areas affected...Far Southern AL...Far Western FL Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 160435Z - 160835Z SUMMARY...Significant flash flooding is ongoing across portions of southern Escambia and south-central Santa Rosa counties in the far western FL Panhandle. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected continue for at least a few more hours resulting in locally life-threatening impacts. Adjacent areas of far southern AL will also need to be closely monitored for extremely heavy rain. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a nearly stationary band of extremely heavy shower and thunderstorm activity continuing to impact portions of southern Escambia and south-central Santa Rosa counties in the far western FL Panhandle. The activity has been anchored in place over the last 3 to 4 hours along a quasi-stationary front oriented generally west to east just inland of the Gulf Coast, with highly focused convection redeveloping and training over the same area with aid of enhanced low-level moisture convergence and a very unstable upstream airmass over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A convergent low-level jet of 20 to 30 kts is in place along with MLCAPE values just offshore of 2500 to 3500 J/kg GC-MRMS data indicates rainfall rates of 2.5 to 3.5 inches/hour within this training band of very strong convection, with 3-hour estimates of 6 to 8 inches noted now just southwest of Pensacola, FL and especially around the Warrington to Gulf Breeze vicinity. Recent radar trends are also showing some localized expansion of convection across areas of far southern AL which unfortunately will be in a position to advance down into the far western FL Panhandle. The 00Z HREF guidance supports extremely heavy rainfall potential continuing over at least the next 2 to 4 hours, and the satellite imagery shows very cold convective tops that are indicative of sustainably strong updrafts at least in the near-term. A combination of the HREF guidance and HRRR runs suggest locally an additional 4 to 6 inches of rain may be possible before the activity begins to produce a sufficient cold pool to move away from the region and possibly out into the Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous and locally life-threatening flash flooding is expected over the next few hours as this band of extremely heavy rainfall persists over the region. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9052Wq8ZW92Moxph_heRuBTBmpIJ8IjMxXoTf_3INqxMNlttDUNzIxNKyEwnmW5n4vYc= leuuG5lUkg6edMr29NRhhDY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31008803 30798729 30668690 30518669 30338673=20 30338752 30718834 30948831=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .