Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1091
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 02:35:52

ACUS11 KWNS 160235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160235=20
OKZ000-160330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

Valid 160235Z - 160330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
continues.

SUMMARY...The significant severe weather threat will continue over
the next few hours across central Oklahoma with large hail and
damaging winds being the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...The convective evolution over Oklahoma has become messy
over the last couple of hours, as increasing low-level warm
advection has resulted in the initiation of several storms ahead of
the primary convective line.  In addition, the supercell cluster
that moved across southwestern Oklahoma earlier in the day has
stabilized the low levels, as indicated by dewpoints in the low 60s
across much of southwestern Oklahoma.  As a result, the tornado
threat has decreased across the state, but sufficient instability
and shear remain for organized storms and severe weather this
evening.

The severe hail threat will be greatest for discrete storms ahead of
the line in central Oklahoma, where an axis of mid-to-upper 60s
dewpoints remain.  The convective line farther west will primarily
pose a severe wind threat.  As these storms move eastward and the
boundary layer stabilizes, they will encounter a less favorable
environment for surface-based parcels.  A narrow northwest-southeast
axis of higher moisture/instability exists from central to southeast
Oklahoma, which will offer the best corridor for continued severe
wind potential.

...Jirak/Grams.. 06/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_RTjPqvr2QKa8FY-ur5nehQSHMr7LoipkWM-KBV7SKDtTriYRi_zbYC9FjfWAb44Y35fE4uZK=
POE29nNFstuAky-Duk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34939903 35399831 35869790 36419765 36609724 36559685
            36189649 35859636 35209643 34469601 34129631 34149704
            34239812 34939903=20


=3D =3D =3D
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