Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 01:14:32 AWUS01 KWNH 160114 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160513- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0495 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 913 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Areas affected...southern/coastal Mississippi, southern/coastal Alabama, western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 160113Z - 160513Z Summary...Training convection continues especially across the western Florida Panhandle. Additional training of convection could result in a localized flash flood risk for the next 2-4 hours. Discussion...A band of training storms persists across the western Florida Panhandle in the wake of an extensive MCS that traversed much of the southeastern U.S. earlier today. These storms are continuing to produce 2-3 inch/hr rain rates from just north of Pensacola through Eglin Air Force Base. West-northwesterly steering flow aloft was contributing to the persistent training of storms along that axis, which remained largely parallel to the aforementioned steering flow. Additionally, low-level westerly flow was continuing to feed updrafts while maintaining extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and high moisture content (2+ inch PW values), supporting efficient rainfall and deep convection.=20 The high moisture content and steep lapse rates aloft will continue to support deep convection well into the nighttime hours and indications are that heavy rainfall and convective training may continue, with recent indications of renewed convective development west of Hattiesburg, MS. Models/CAMs suggest that continued convective development is possible for at least another 2-4 hours, which is plausible given aforementioned convective trends. Fortunately, FFG thresholds in areas where training cells are occurring are in the 4+ inch/hr range. It'll take multiple rounds of training cells to wet grounds sufficiently for a flash flood risk (outside of urbanized/sensitive areas), and there is an outside risk that storms propagate off their current axis toward Gulf of Mexico waters. The flash flood risk is conditional upon the persistence of heavier rainfall over land areas through 05Z. ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_PItmbsiuuHJOz47BmJOY5shFrMhWmODUNP94X-Yvs13koEs6kjXbBnRls_VjKw56UNO= g5yThxIqcR35klKoEJt4X9A$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31468866 31188666 30668588 30298593 30078732=20 30088861 30348946 31428976=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .