Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 01:06:49 ACUS01 KWNS 160106 SWODY1 SPC AC 160105 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST AREA...AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms associated with very large hail (greater than 3 inches in diameter), damaging wind gusts above 80 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into tonight from western Oklahoma and northwest Texas east-southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat will also be possible this evening along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and in parts of the Ohio Valley. ....Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The latest mosaic radar imagery across the southern Plains shows a severe linear MCS in northwest Oklahoma, a severe convective cluster in southern Oklahoma, and more isolated severe storms from northwest Texas southward into the Texas Hill Country. These storms are located along and near an axis of strong instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range. At the northern end of the instability axis, a shortwave trough with a pronounced vorticity max is evident in water vapor imagery. Lift associated with this feature, along with increasing low-level flow, will sustain the development of the MCS across western Oklahoma, and the severe cluster near the Red River this evening. The severe storms in southern Oklahoma are expected to track southeastward into northeast Texas, as the severe linear MCS tracks southeastward into central Oklahoma. Wind gusts greater than 70 knots, and very large hail (above 3 inches in diameter) will be possible within the more intense parts of these storms. The potential for very strong wind gusts may continue into the early overnight period as the MCS tracks southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. A wind-damage threat could continue into the lower Mississippi Valley late in the period. ....Central and Eastern Gulf Coast... Two bands of strong thunderstorms are ongoing from far southern Alabama extending east-southeastward across the Florida Panhandle into northern Florida. A moist and unstable airmass is located to the south of the two bands with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings from Mobile, Alabama eastward into north-central Florida have moderate deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. According to regional WSR-88D VWPs, this is due to directional shear in the lowest two kilometers and speed shear in the mid-levels. This environment should support an isolated severe threat for a couple more hours, with wind damage and hail as the primary threats. ....Ohio Valley... The latest radar imagery from Cleveland shows a cluster of strong to severe storms in northern Ohio. These storms are located near a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE from 1000 to 1200 J/kg. The storms are being supported by low-level convergence in the vicinity of a surface low, and by large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Forecast soundings near the storms this evening have moderate deep-layer shear with steep low-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours, with damaging wind gusts and hail possible with the stronger cells. ...Broyles.. 06/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .