Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 16 2023 00:22:02

AWUS01 KWNH 160021
FFGMPD
OHZ000-160317-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0493
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...northern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160017Z - 160317Z

Summary...A cluster of deep convection is producing enough heavy
rainfall for localized flash flood concerns for 2-3 hours.

Discussion...Robust convective development has occurred within a
focused warm/moist axis across the discussion area.  The axis of
moderate instability was located just ahead of a cold front across
northern Indiana that was moving toward the area.  Appreciable
ascent within the axis was attributed to a very stout mid-level
wave over Michigan and low-level convergence within the warm/moist
axis.  Additionally, convection was maintaining a cellular mode,
with localized backbuilding and merging of cells resulting in
prolonged rainfall and rates approaching 3 inches/hr just
southeast of Sandusky per MRMS.  These rain rates were localized
to a cluster in that area, with surrounding convection producing
lower rain rates.  The rates were also exceeding FFG thresholds
(1.5-2.5 inch/hr), and MRMS Flash responses suggest that at least
localized runoff concerns exist.

Models/CAMs suggest that convection will continue to migrate
eastward/east-southeastward in tandem with the eastward
progression of the moist axis, perhaps reaching a line extending
from Cleveland to Columbus through 02Z.  Nocturnal boundary layer
cooling should cause storms to gradually weaken, although this
process will be offset by the strong forcing aloft and continued
low-level convergence.  A very localized flash flood risk should
continue with this activity through 03Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!61Q96_D_Uw6eHF6Cd_UrF5QacAyCIGiWslBL19nYg0FZBZ5CYGcFmOhu5Pb4QZ3e_FpL=
5Lw_d51kDoXXHbOtWm1lnsM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41878100 40698071 39958151 39828248 40068442=20
            41578360 41838247=20

=3D =3D =3D
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