Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1087
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 23:55:19

ACUS11 KWNS 152355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152354=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-160130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern OK into north-central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 307...309...

Valid 152354Z - 160130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 307, 309 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, severe/damaging winds, and
tornadoes will continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...The supercell thunderstorm complex in southern OK may
be trying to grow into a small bowing cluster based on recent radar
trends. The environment downstream remains quite favorable
along/south of an effective warm front that extends from
western/southern OK into north-central and northeast TX. Large hail
will remain possible with these intense thunderstorms in the short
term, and severe/damaging winds may become an increasing concern if
a more linear mode becomes dominant. If this mode transition occurs,
then significant severe wind gusts (75+ mph) would become more
likely given the very large reservoir of buoyancy available. Backed
low-level flow near the surface front is promoting a narrow corridor
of 200-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH per latest mesoanalysis estimates.
Given the favorable low-level shear, tornadoes will remain possible
with embedded circulations. A local extension in area for Tornado
Watch 309 may be needed for part of north-central into northeast TX
if convection continues to track southeastward.

...Gleason.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!68mkROOY5RCLwNVNVmc6Dq85aW0vOOKFNaXXdw3cDP2QOIiwrX8grSHqtSllmmqfRaPzK7ujU=
4pzx0zlV149CnlwTjQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34019776 34469721 33679548 32909589 33289705 34019776=20


=3D =3D =3D
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